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By the way, the theoretical payback for many of the games I have found are in the 92% range. That is why I stated the data (with thousands upon thosands of bets monthly) would provide a more realistic payback percentage than the theoretical percentage.
I understood your first post, but not this one. If you know the theoretical percentage, why are you still looking around. That's all the info you need, isn't it. The point of the exercise of looking at gaming commission data is to approximate the theoretical return percentage in the absense of that actual information.
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By the way, the theoretical payback for many of the games I have found are in the 92% range. That is why I stated the data (with thousands upon thosands of bets monthly) would provide a more realistic payback percentage than the theoretical percentage.
Keep in mind that a single 'game' can have many different versions of it to satisfy the needs of various casinos. For example, let's say Cleopatra, could have versions that return 95%, 92%, 90%, and 88%. Casinos in Vegas might use the lower-returning versions for lower denominations and the higher-returning versions for higher-stakes machines. Tribal casinos with little or no competition may use the lowest-paying version regardless of denomination.
That's all hypothetical, but I wouldn't trust any web site that says 'this game returns this much' because there are more than likely multiple configurations of the game that all have a different return (unless of course you are logged in to the game manufacturer's web site and obtained the info directly from them).
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The 'theoretical' percentage posted can not be justified – it was listed on a specific machine on a website offering info about slots in general. And as you can see, the theoretical payback provided was much greater than the actual payback. Since this is a slot machine, poor play can not be taken into account to skew the results. I guess my point is no matter WHAT the theoretical payback may be, the actual results given over time is a much better indicator. Thanks for your comments…….
Would you care to share the URL of this web page?
Also, the actual results over time (if I'm understanding your source correctly) is an average across all games (and possibly all denominations, though sometimes they are broken down by denomination). So if one game returns 85% but gets played more than the one that returns 92% then the average will fall around 88%, for example.
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The data on the slot machines are broken down by denomination (penny, nickel, $1. ..) for all the casinos in my area. And I do agree that the overall payback percentage represents all the games for that denomination and will not give one insight on the payback percentage for a particular game. Most of the action on slot machines come from popular themes or machines that pay off better than others so I wouldn't expect too wide of a range from machine to machine.
If a casino is providing numbers to a state gaming commission and those numbers are CONSISTANTLY in the same range over time, then one can have a fairly good idea what to expect when they play in that certain casino.
I don't know if you can ever really figure a slot machine payback percentage without the PAR sheets. Best to stay away from slots and play video poker, where you can always calculate the exact return.
Slot machine payback (or return) is one the last great mysteries in the casino.
Not really. The great mystery is why people play them at all.Some of the discussion relates to 'life of the machine' payouts. This is sort of similar to the airplane wing of infinite length. Its great for math calculations but kinda rough on the poor guy who has to wash it or park it in a hangar.
We know that some not-quite-perfect RNG is the start point and that some PAR strips intervene and so there is this 'theoretical payout' rate and that there is some point in time wherein actual and theoretical will match but until that point in time they only approximate. Yet such approximations are considered 'good enough for government work'.
We don't know which chips the casino has but we know Nevada is the biggest market and all slots will meet Nevada requirements so even in a tribal casino is likely to have RNGs suitable for use in Nevada.
So if Lady Variance delivered a bit less than optimal expectations on one day .. those results are but a fluke, as is the slot machine paying off a jackpot.
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We’ve all seen the small notice on the slot machine that says something like, “Machine malfunction voids all pays and plays.” Have you ever really thought about what you would do if it happened to you?
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Stephen Wilkinson was playing his favorite slot machine at the Philadelphia Park casino in Pennsylvania when he hit the jackpot for $102,000. The machine lit up, the jackpot music started to play, and on the screen it congratulated him on his win of $102,000. People quickly gathered around and began congratulating him, in fact the women beside him was so excited she phoned her husband to tell him the news. Well, Stephen was in for a big surprise but it wasn’t $102,000.
After several minutes of casino employees huddled in deep discussion, they made their way over to Stephen to congratulate him on his win. Wrong! They made their way over to let him know that there was a machine malfunction, and he did not hit the jackpot. However, they would compensate him for the malfunction by providing him with two free tickets to their buffet. No, I’m not making that part up. They tried to reconcile the situation by giving him two free buffet tickets. Unless there was gold and diamonds on the buffet, that doesn’t seem like just compensation to me.
What do you think? Do you think the casino should have to pay the money, or are they not liable because they have the warning on the machine? What about if it happened to you, how do you think you would respond? What would you do?
Let’s take a look at similar situation that occurred, you may have a different reaction. This actually happened to a fellow gambler that I know and it happened on a video poker machine instead of a slot machine, but video poker machines are classified as “slots” and have the same malfunction warning on each machine. This story has a slightly different twist to it, but ironically it was for about the same amount of money.
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John was in the casino when he noticed a single progressive video poker machine. A single progressive simply means that the machine is not hooked up to any other machines, the jackpot rises as someone plays that machine only. Many video poker single progressives have a large display above the machine that lets the customer know how high the jackpot is. John noticed a $1 denomination ($5 for max play) video poker machine where the display read that the jackpot was $104,000 for a royal flush. If you don’t play video poker, just know that a normal payout for a royal on a $1 machine is $4,000. The progressives are reset at $4,000 and move up as the game is played.
John knew something wasn’t right. It’s almost mathematically impossible for a $1 video poker progressive machine to get over $100,000 without a royal flush being hit. If it got up to $20,000 it would be big news and you wouldn’t be able to play the machine because it would be packed with people. John decided to play and see what happened. The entire time he played the jackpot was still listed as $104,000 and was increasing as he played. After about an hour, sure enough John hit a royal flush.
What do you think happened?
- A) The casino paid him the $104,000 that was advertised on the machine.
- B) They paid him nothing because there was a machine malfunction.
- C) They paid him the reset jackpot value of $4,000.
- D) They paid him some other amount.
If you guessed option C you would be correct. The casino explained to John that the progressive counter display had malfunctioned and they would not pay him the $104,000. John didn’t fight it too much because he knew there was nothing he could do. I think he was most upset at the fact that they paid him the minimum of $4,000, which is the reset amount, instead of at least compensating him something extra since it was a progressive. They claimed that the malfunction voided everything, and basically they were saying he’s lucky to be getting the $4,000.
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What is your feeling on this situation? Is it different from the first story? Does it matter that John knew something was amiss when he sat down at the machine? I would love to hear your thoughts, and any similar situations that may have happened to you or someone you know.